京津冀城市网络协同发展分析及雄安新区人口规模研究

Coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban network and the population scale of Xiong’an New Area

在京津冀协同发展的背景下,为论证雄安新区在京津冀城市网络系统最优时的人口规模,本研究以城市网络理论和城市最小成本理论为基础,以最优路径自动选择测算居民出行时间,通过修正引力模型、潜力模型等经典模型构建了京津冀城市网络综合分析模型,论证了系统最优即网络紧凑度和均衡度均达最大值时雄安新区的人口规模。研究发现,雄安新区的设立提升了京津冀城市网络的紧凑度,降低了京津冀地区居民的平均出行时间;提升了位于京津冀地理中心的城市如保定、廊坊等的引力,扭转了长久以来京津冀引力中心与地理中心背离的发展态势;促进了京津冀城市体系空间结构由'双核孤岛'向'多中心'轴带网络结构演变;系统最优下的雄安新区人口规模,2020~2035年间约为280~320万人,2035~2050年间约为450~500万人。

In the context of the coordinated development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,in order to demonstrate the population size of Xiong’an New Area when the system of urban network of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei was optimal,based on the Urban Network Theory and Urban Minimum-Cost Theory,this study used an optimal route to automatically measure the travel time of residents.The comprehensive analysis model on the urban network of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei was constructed by modifying the gravity model,the potential model and other classic models,and then,the scale of Xiong’an New District was calculated.When the compact ratio and equilibrium degree of the urban system were at thier maximum,that meant,the whole system was optimal.The study found that the establishment of Xiong’an New Area would promote the compact ratio on the urban networkt of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei,and reduce the average travel time of residents,and also enhance the urban gravitation of Baoding and Langfang that the two cities are located in the geographic center of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.As a result,it would reverse the long-term trend of deviation between gravity center and geographical center on the urban network of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei.Additionallly,it would promote the spatial structure of urban system evolving from dual-core isolated islands to multi-center axis network.The scale of population in Xiong’an New Area based on the system’s optimal level,would be 2.8~3.2 million people between 2020 and 2035,and 4.5~5 million people between 2035 and 2050.