国际秩序的未来

The Future of International Order(s)

当前的国际秩序仅在开放贸易或经济意义上,而非在政治意义上属于"自由主义",却被贴上了自由主义的错误标签。关于未来的国际秩序,本文提出三个重要的论点:第一,更加注重以规则为基础的国际秩序将会持续存在,但其西方中心主义的色彩将大大减弱;第二,形塑国际秩序的力量将会更多地自下而上且带有更多的竞争性,而不像之前主要自上而下的强加;第三,由于美国主导的全球秩序已经停滞,而且也很难重新回到曾经的势头,区域秩序变得更加关键。未来国际秩序将会变得更加区域化和碎片化。最后,本文探讨了西方的未来以及西方以外世界现代化的进程,并总结了一些关于后特朗普时代的思考和看法。

It is misleading to label the existing international order as“liberal”.The much-touted liberal international order is only liberal in the economic,but not political,sense.On the future of the international order(s),this paper advances three principal arguments.First,the more rule-based international order will persist,but it will be increasingly less West-centric.Second,shaping the international order will become more bottom-up and contested,rather than mostly top-down and imposed as it used to be.Third,regional orders will become more critical now that the momentum toward an Americanized global order has stalled and may never regain its lost momentum.In this sense,the future international order(s)will become more regionalized and fragmented.Finally,this paper addresses the future of the West and the modernization process beyond the West,and concludes with some thoughts on the international order(s)after Trump.