国际油价走势与欧佩克未来前途

International crude price trend &OPEC's future

2014年下半年以来,国际油价暴跌,至今未见回复的迹象。供需关系、地缘政治、金融炒作等影响油价的诸多因素依然在起作用,但是归根结底要看市场基本面。当前,欧佩克外部面临着市场供应对手日益强大,燃油税升高和能源补贴减少致使石油需求放缓,绿色环保加码驱动能源转型加快等严峻挑战。与此同时,欧佩克组织内部矛盾重重难以协调,治理能力和市场作用越来越受到怀疑。未来欧佩克的命运如何,关键要看沙特阿拉伯是否担当、俄罗斯是否配合以及美国是否"收敛"。近期,伊朗原油出口能否再获豁免期,委内瑞拉与美国对抗是否会升级,美国是否能够继续增产、是否对欧佩克提起反垄断调查,欧佩克是否就此完全鸽派化抑或就此解散,以及解散后对全球石油市场如何产生冲击,将是市场关注的重点。

Since the second half of 2014, the international crude oil price has plummeted a lot without any significant recurrence by now. Many factors including supply and demand balance, geopolitical issues and financial speculations influence oil price but the underlying cause is still market fundamental. At present, OPEC is facing such tough challenges as stronger supply competitors, higher oil consumption taxes, less energy subsidies and even more accelerating pace of environmental protections, which are leading to possibly earlier coming of oil demand peaking and energy transition. Meanwhile, series of internal contradictions and increasing confrontations are making OPEC less capable in governance and market. The future of OPEC lies in Saudi Arabia’s shouldering, Russia’s cooperating, and the US’s self-restraining. The market in the near future mainly focuses on regaining 'exemption period' for Iran crude oil, escalating of the confrontation between the US and Venezuela, expanding of its shale oil production, rising of the issue of 'anti-monopoly' to the 'oil cartel', OPEC’s attitudes,and possible shock to international oil market since its disbandment.