法定数字货币的经济效应分析:理论与实证

Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Study on the Economic Effect of Central Bank Digital Currency

如何实现整体经济效益和社会福利的最大化,是法定数字货币研发的核心命题。理论分析表明,在支付方面,央行数字货币为银行间支付清算创造了一种新的模式,可优化零售端传统法定货币的支付功能;若与其他更广泛的金融基础设施有效融合,央行数字货币还有助于社会节本增效。在货币政策方面,基于合理的机制设计,央行数字货币不仅对货币政策和宏观经济的影响"中性",而且可成为一种新的货币政策工具,增强货币政策有效性。在金融稳定方面,可以通过增加银行存款向央行数字货币转化的摩擦和成本,避免"狭义银行"影响。基于DSGE模型的实证结果显示,发行央行数字货币对我国银行系统和金融结构的冲击可控,长期看有助于提高经济产出,与稳态时的经济产出相比,可提升经济增速0.01个百分点,总体经济效应正面。实证结果还证实,央行数字货币利率创造了一种新的货币政策工具,可以在宏观经济调控上发挥作用。

A core mission of CBDC research&development is to maximize the overall economic performance and social welfare.Theoretical analysis shows that,in terms of payment,CBDC provides a new model for interbank payment and settlement and optimizes payment functionalities of traditional fiat money at retail end.Meanwhile,CBDC,if integrated effectively with other financial infrastructure,will be conducive to improving cost-effectiveness of the entire society.In terms of monetary policy,CBDC,with sound institutional design,will not only keep neutral to monetary policy and macro economy,but also become a new monetary policy instrument to enhance effectiveness of monetary policy.In terms of financial stability,it is possible to avoid the impact of CBDC on narrow banking by increasing frictions and costs for banking deposits to be transformed to CBDC.Empirical research based on DSGE suggests that the shock of CBDC issuance to China’s banking system and financial structure is controllable.Moreover,in the long run,CBDC issuance will contribute to higher economic output and raise economic growth by 0.01 percentage point compared with economic output at steady state.In addition,empirical studies also show that CBDC interest rate may become a new monetary policy instrument that can play a role in macro-economic control.