资本账户开放、金融稳定与经济增长

Capital Account Liberalization, Financial Stability and Economic Growth

本文运用TVP-VAR方法分析了2007—2016年中国资本账户开放对金融稳定及实体经济的时变性影响。从资本账户开放对经济增长的总体影响看,资本账户开放对经济增长的短期影响波动较大,中长期影响在2011年由负转正,其后存在边际递减效应。从资本账户开放通过影响金融稳定进而传导至实体经济的作用机制来看,金融市场对资本账户开放冲击的响应越来越迅速,表明中国金融市场的系列改革增强了金融市场吸收外在冲击的能力。但2011年后金融市场对实体经济的影响并不稳定,这在一定程度上削弱了2011年后资本账户开放对经济增长的促进作用,说明现阶段中国不应急于加速资本账户开放进程,而应当着力于打通金融进入实体经济的渠道,提升金融市场的传导效率。

This article analyzes how capital account liberalization affects financial stability and economic growth from2007 to 2016 in China. Regarding the gross effect on economic growth, the short-term shocks of capital account openness fluctuate markedly, while the intermediate and long term impacts change from negative to positive with decreasing marginal effects. As for the liberalization’s influence mechanism on economic growth through financial stability, the financial markets react more rapidly to the shocks of capital account openness, which indicates that the series of financial market reforms strengthen the capability of the financial system to absorb the external disturbance;However, the influence of financial stability on economic growth is unstable after 2011. Though the expansion of the financial condition leads to a higher economic growth rate in the short run, it is not necessary to have such effects in the medium and long run, which to some extent weakens the enhancement of economic growth. The empirical results reveal that rather than accelerating the liberalization of financial account at present, China should firstly dredge the channels between the financial system and the real economy and improve the transmission efficiency of financial markets.