东道国金融发展、空间溢出效应与我国对外直接投资——基于“一带一路”沿线国家金融生态的研究

Financial Development of Host Country, Spatial Spillover Effect and China’s OFDI——A New Study Based on the Financial Ecology of Countries along the BRI Corridor

本文利用2007—2015年'一带一路'沿线55个国家的金融生态数据与我国对外直接投资存量数据,采用邻接矩阵、地理距离矩阵和贸易矩阵三种空间权重矩阵设定的空间杜宾模型,实证检验了东道国金融发展对我国对外直接投资的影响,以及东道国周边国家金融发展对我国对东道国对外直接投资的空间溢出效应,并分析了不同维度的金融发展在国家和地区间的异质性影响。结果表明,我国对东道国的对外直接投资不仅受到东道国金融生态状况的影响,还与周边国家金融生态的空间溢出效应有关。此外,东道国及其周边国家金融发展对我国对外直接投资的影响会因东道国经济发展水平和金融开放程度的差异而呈现异质性,具体表现在金融生态内部的不同维度、不同国家,以及不同地区。本文首次从金融生态视角出发,分析了东道国金融发展对我国对外直接投资的影响,并在充分考虑'一带一路'沿线国家地缘关系和贸易联系的基础上,引入东道国周边国家金融发展的空间溢出效应,更加全面地分析了'一带一路'沿线国家的金融发展与我国对外直接投资的关系,具有一定的创新性和现实意义。

With the financial ecological data of the 55 countries along the'Belt and Road Initiative'corridor and China’s foreign direct investment stock data spanning from 2007 to 2015,this paper uses spatial durbin model set by adjacency matrix, geographic distance matrix and trade matrix to examine the impact of the financial development of the host country as well as the spatial spillover effects of neighboring countries’ financial development on China’s foreign direct investment. Additionally, the paper analyzes the heterogeneous impact in different dimensions of financial development occurring in various countries and regions. The results show that China’s foreign direct investment in the host country is not only affected by the financial ecological status of the host country, but also related to the spatial spillover effects of the financial ecology of neighboring countries. In addition, due to the different levels of economic development and financial openness, this impact and spillover effects demonstrate obvious heterogeneities, varying across dimensions within the host country’s financial ecology,countries and also regions. This paper, for the first time analyzes the impact of host country financial development on China’s foreign direct investment from the perspective of financial ecology. Besides, the paper introduces the spatial spillover effects of the financial development of neighboring countries on the basis of fully considering the geographical relations and trade links of countries along the'Belt and Road'. It analyzes the relationship between the financial development of countries along the'Belt and Road'and China’s foreign direct investment to these countries more comprehensively, which is of considerable innovative and practical significance.