后危机时期全球银行业变革趋势与竞争格局

Global Banking Reform Trend and Competition Patterns in the Post-Crisis Period

自2008年全球金融危机十多年以来,在市场环境和监管改革双重压力下,全球银行业告别了危机前以少量资本和过度期限错配支撑高速增长,并博取高额利润的发展路径,进入了高资本、低错配、低增长、低盈利的发展新阶段。银行业稳健性明显增强,业务模式回归传统,行业集中度进一步提高。全球银行业竞争格局逐渐演变成中美主导与日欧协同的新态势。这些变革很大程度上符合金融监管改革的预期目标,但在一些领域也超出了改革初衷。金融监管部门必须高度关注这些变革对银行业,乃至更广泛的金融体系稳健性和经济增长的潜在影响。

During the past decade after the global financial crisis,under double pressures from the market environment and regulatory reforms,the global banking sectors move on from the pre-crisis path of high growth and high profits supported by a weak capital strength and excessive maturity mismatches.And now it enters into a new normality featuring high capital,low mismatch,low growth and low profitability.The banking industry becomes more robust,more concentrated,with its business model back to more traditional style.The global banking competitive landscape evolves into a new situation dominated by China and the United States,followed by Japan and Europe.To a large extent,those developments meet the expected objectives of the financial regulatory reform,in some areas,however,it just goes beyond the original intention of the reform.The regulatory authorities must pay close attention to the potential impact of these changes on the robustness of the banking sector and a broader financial system as well as on the economic growth.