中国出口质量的空间分布、阶梯动态与结构分解

Spatial Distribution,Ladder Dynamic and Structural Decomposition of China's Export Quality

本文利用CEPII-BACI数据库多维度优势测算出口质量,据此构造出口来源地、出口目的地、区间变化三个视角下的出口质量阶梯,以全面揭示中国出口质量的空间分布与阶梯动态典型事实。研究结果表明:入世以来中国出口贸易在全球的质量地位有所下降,但高技术产品的出口质量水平及其排名均在提升,出口技术结构的优化可以逐渐纠正整体出口质量的劣化;中国出口质量的产品异质性先减弱后增强,目的地异质性明显减弱,对美国的出口质量已领先亚洲新兴市场;结构分解结果表明持续贸易关系出口质量的降低和高质量贸易关系的退出是造成入世后中国整体出口质量下滑的主要原因,前者的改善和后者的进入更是金融危机前后和2012—2014年中国出口质量水平提升的关键结构性因素。

By using the multi-dimensional advantage of CEPII-BACI database,this paper measures export quality,and constructs three export quality ladders from export source,export destination and interval change perspectives,to fully reveal the typical facts of the spatial distribution and ladder dynamic of China’s export quality. What the paper finds are as follows: China’s export quality status in the world is experiencing a downward trend since the accession to the WTO,but the export quality level and ranking of hi-tech product is upgrading,the optimization of export technical structure can gradually correct the degradation of overall export quality;The product heterogeneity of China’s export quality is enhancing after a weaken process,and the destination heterogeneity is weaken obviously,but the export quality in the United States has been leading the emerging markets in Asia;The result of structural decomposition shows that the decline of continuous trade relation’s export quality and quit of high quality trade relation are the main strength to result in the decline of China’s overall export quality,at the same time,the improvement of the former and the entry of the latter are the key structural factors for the improvement of China’s export quality before and after the financial crisis and 2012-2014. This paper confirms that China’s'win by quality'goal has achieved initial success,but there is still a lot of space for the improvement of export quality.