基础设施、空间溢出对中国与周边国家间贸易的影响

The Impacts of Infrastructures and Their Spatial Spillovers on the Trades between China and Its Neighboring Countries

本文揭示了基础设施互联互通在中国的对外贸易中所发挥的独特作用。在理论建模与实证研究当中,本文将基础设施跟要素禀赋结构结合起来考察中国与周边国家的进出口贸易,并关注了以下两个方面的差异:要素禀赋结构的地区性差异;中国在进口与出口方面的差异。以中国—东盟及上合组织区域为对象,采用2000—2015年的面板数据,本文的实证研究得到以下主要结论:(1)中国的基础设施增长提高了本国的进口依存度,对邻国亦然,这说明基础设施的本地效应为正。(2)邻国基础设施对中国具有空间溢出,其增长提高了中国的进口依存度;中国的基础设施对邻国同样具有空间溢出,且提高了邻国的进口依存度。这说明基础设施互联互通有助于中国与邻国的贸易融合。此外,本文未发现"负的基础设施空间溢出效应"。(3)基础设施的本地效应与空间溢出效应之间存在替代关系。

This paper illustrates the unique role played by the connection of infrastructures among China and its neighboring countries to China’s foreign trade. Combining infrastructure with the structure of factor endowments in its theoretical model and empirical study,this paper focuses on two kinds of differences,one is the regional difference in the structure of factor endowments among China and its neighbors,and the other is the difference between China’s exports and its imports. The conclusions based on empirical study of the cross-nation panel data of China-ASEAN and the region of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization dated 2000-2015 are: First,the increase of China’s infrastructure promotes the import dependence of its own,which applies to the neighboring countries. It means that the local effect of infrastructure is positive. Second,spatial spillovers of infrastructures from the neighboring countries to China promote China’s import dependence,and vice versa,which means that the connection of infrastructures promotes China’s foreign trade.And,the negative spatial spillover effect of infrastructure is not found in this paper. Third,the local effect and the spatial spillover effect of infrastructure are substitutes with each other.