中国贸易方式转型的环境效应研究

Research on the Environmental Effects of China's Trade Pattern Transformation

中国加工贸易经过多年的发展,目前已经处于区域非同步转型阶段。表现为以东部沿海地区为代表的加工贸易转型区内部加工贸易比重下降、一般贸易占比上升;而以中西部人口大省为代表的加工贸易承接区则表现出相反趋势。理论上,贸易方式结构反映了当地制造业生产过程的特点,可能从"清洁效应"与"技术效应"两个渠道影响工业排污强度。以各省区市单位工业产值SO2排放作为排污强度指标,利用2006—2015年省级面板数据的分组实证研究发现,在全国总体及加工贸易承接区子样本范围内,各省区市加工贸易比重与排污强度呈负相关;而加工贸易转型区各省区市加工贸易占比与当地排污强度呈正相关。以各地低端劳动密集型制造业就业占比替代加工贸易占比的稳健性检验也得出了一致性结论,从而验证了"贸易方式结构——制造业生产特点——排污强度"的逻辑关系。在东部地区成本上涨、国际环境贸易保护主义抬头的背景下,中西部地区扩大开放可借鉴东部地区从加工贸易入手,并在政府协助下积极完成资金与技术的积累与升级。

After 40 years of development,China’s processing trade has reached a significant and pivotal era,thereby entering a period of non-synchronous regional transformation,which is reflected in the fall of processing trade share and the rise of ordinary trade share among coastal provinces in eastern China(Processing Trade Transformation Area).Nonetheless,middle and western provinces with large populations(Processing Trade Undertaking Area)demonstrate opposite trends.Theoretically,the trade pattern structure reflectes the characteristics of local manufacturing processes thus may influence the intensity of industrial-waste emissions through the channels of'Cleaning effect'and'Technical effect'.Group Empirical Study based on panel data from 2006-2015 of 28 provinces shows that there is a significant negative correlation among industrial SO2 emission intensity and the processing trade share among provinces in total China and processing trade undertaking area,and a positive correlation among provinces in processing trade transformation area.Consistent results were shown in robustness tests of the relationship between trade pattern and employment ratio of low-end labor-intensive manufacturing industries,thereby reinforces the dialectic relation among trade pattern structure,characteristics of manufacture and emission intensity.Given the background of rising costs in the East and rising protectionism in international environmental trade,the expansion of opening-up of the central and western regions may begin with inheriting processing trade from the East,and actively completing the accumulation and upgrading of capital and technology with the assistance of the government.