汇率变动如何影响旅游服务贸易——基于“第三方市场效应”的研究

How do Exchange Rate Movements Affect Tourism Trade in Services— A“Third Market Effects”Investigation

本文分析汇率变动对旅游服务贸易的微观影响机制,发现本币实际汇率升值会对旅游服务贸易产生'第三方市场效应',即一方面提升本地至目的地出境旅游服务贸易,另一方面降低本地至目的地以外的第三方旅游服务贸易,带来'跟着汇率去旅行'的行为模式。本文采用1985—2010年跨国面板数据的计量分析表明,本币汇率升值不但从'集约边际'显著增加了对原有目的地的旅游金额,而且从'扩展边际'显著提升了向新目的地出境游的概率。进一步采用包含详细目的地和来源地的中国出入境旅游人数数据进行研究,发现从旅游人数角度也验证了'第三方市场效应',这说明汇率变动显著地通过影响自然人的出境选择来影响旅游服务贸易的金额。

This paper investigated how exchange rate movement affect outbound travel.We find domestic currency appreciation has the Third Market Effects on outbound travel,it promotes travel to partner country,whereas dampens travel to the rest of world,which shows'Follow Exchange Rate to Travel'pattern.Using 1985-2010 cross-national panel data,we find domestic appreciation significantly increases travel amount(intensive margin)to partner country,meanwhile,it extensively increases its outbound probability(extensive margin).Further investigation on Chinese data,we confirm the Third Market Effects on the number of inbound and outbound tourists.