中国内容异质性FTA的贸易效应研究

A Study on Trade Effect of China's FTA with Content Heterogeneity

贸易效应是FTA研究的核心内容之一,但现有文献在测度FTA贸易效应时往往忽视了FTA的内容异质性。本研究借鉴Horn (2010)的方法构建中国FTA内容异质性指数,在分析中国FTA内容异质性特征基础上,利用2001～2016年中国与175个贸易伙伴的面板数据,基于拓展的引力模型和PPML估计方法,探讨了内容异质性视角下中国FTA的贸易效应,结果显示:FTA显著促进了中国进、出口贸易,且对进口的促进远远大于出口,条款覆盖范围越广、法律执行力越强的FTA的贸易促进效应越大,忽视FTA异质性可能会高估中国FTA的贸易效应;贸易伙伴的经济规模和发展水平负向调节中国FTA的贸易效应,中国与小国和发展中国家缔结深度FTA的贸易效应更大;中国FTA贸易促进作用的主要渠道是WTO-X而非WTO+类型条款。

Trade effect is one of the core contents of FTA research. However,the existing literatures often overlook the content heterogeneity of FTA when measuring the trade effect of FTA. This paper builds the content heterogeneity index of China’s FTA based on Horn’s( 2010) method and explores the trade effect of China’s FTA from the perspective of content heterogeneity by analyzing the content heterogeneity characteristics of China’s FTA on the basis of the panel data of 175 trading partners of China from 2001 to 2016 with the extended gravity model and PPML estimation method. The results show that FTA has a significant promotion effect on China’s export and import trade and the promotion of import is much greater than export. The broader the coverage of the terms and the stronger the enforcement of the law are,the greater the trade promotion effect of FTA will be. The neglection of the heterogeneity of FTA may lead to the overestimation of trade effect of China’s FTA. The economic scale and development level regulate the trade effect of China’s FTA negatively.The trade effect of deep FTA between China and other small and developing countries is greater. The major way of China’s FTA to promote trade is WTO-X rather than WTO + type terms.