贸易壁垒如何影响中国制造业全球价值链分工——以美国对华反倾销为例的经验研究

How do Trade Barriers Affect Global Value Chain Division of China's Manufacturing Industry: A Case Study of US Anti-dumping against China

文章基于WIOD投入产出表对中国总出口贸易流、中美双边贸易流、制造业部门贸易流以及双边制造业部门贸易流进行分解,依据贸易增加值核算法则对全球价值链分工进行了度量,并构造中国制造业遭遇美国反倾销和行业参与全球价值链分工相匹配的动态面板模型进行计量分析。结果表明,美国对华反倾销措施显著抑制了中国的总出口增加值关联和区分中间品与最终品的增加值关联,但促进了前向和后向增加值关联。其中,对最终品出口的国外增加值产生的抑制效应要大于对中间品出口的国外增加值产生的抑制效应,对前向联系的增加值出口的促进程度大于后向联系的增加值出口的促进程度。就中国而言,针对反倾销的贸易破坏效应和贸易抑制效应,应根据外需和内需的关系及时调整战略,重视反倾销的国家间贸易转移效应和产品间贸易转移效应,从价值链的生产者和使用者角度与其他贸易伙伴构建区域价值链,从而形成更为全面的全球价值链分工关系。

Based on WIOD database,this paper decomposes China’s total export trade flow,Sino-US bilateral trade flow as well as trade flows in both manufacturing sectors and bilateral manufacturing sectors.According to the accounting method of trade in value-added,the paper measures the division of global value chain(GVC)and constructs a dynamic panel model which matches US anti-dumping against China and industrial participation in the division of GVC for econometric analysis.The results show that US anti-dumping measures against China significantly inhibit China’s total export value-added correlation as well as the value-added correlation which distinguishes the intermediate products and final products,yet promote the forward and backward value-added correlations.Among them,the suppression effect on the foreign value-added of final products export is greater than that of intermediate products export,and the promotion of value-added export of forward linkage is greater than that of backward linkage.For China,in view of trade destruction and depression effects of anti-dumping,it is necessary to adjust the strategies in time according to the relationship between external and domestic demands,attach great importance to trade diversion effects among the anti-dumping countries and products as well as construct the regional value chains with other trading partners from the perspective of the producers and users of GVC for a more comprehensive GVC division.