中国对东盟国家直接投资的贸易效应研究

A Study on Trade Effect of China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment in ASEAN

基于2003～2015年中国对东盟国家的直接投资和贸易数据,文章使用引力方程及分位数模型,考察了中国对东盟国家的直接投资对其进出口贸易的异质性影响及影响机制。研究发现:中国对东盟国家的直接投资具有明显的贸易创造效应。平均而言,当其他因素不变时,中国对东盟国家的直接投资流量每增加1个百分点,对东盟国家当年的出口将会增加0.53%,进口将会增加0.62%。并且,中国对东盟直接投资的贸易创造效应存在明显的异质性。当贸易额相对较低时,对外直接投资对进出口贸易有较大的创造效应;但当贸易额相对较高时,贸易创造效应较小。进一步研究发现,资源寻求型是中国对东盟国家直接投资的一个主要投资动机,东盟国家丰富的资源禀赋对中国直接投资有明显的促进作用;但并未发现显著的效率寻求型和市场寻求型投资动机。在考虑了"一带一路"倡议的影响、加入滞后期、使用面板数据以及能源行业产出等因素后,结果仍然是稳健的。

Based on the data of China’s OFDI and trade of ASEAN countries from 2003 to2015,this paper examines the heterogeneous impacts of China’s OFDI in ASEAN countries on their import and export trade by applying the quantile model of gravity equation.The study reveals that China’s OFDI has obvious trade-induced effect on ASEAN countries.On average,when other factors remain unchanged,for every 1 percentage increase in China’s OFDI flows to ASEAN countries,China’s exports to ASEAN countries will increase by 0.53%and imports by 0.62%in that year.Moreover,there are obvious heterogeneities in trade-induced effects of China’s OFDI in ASEAN.When the trade volume is relatively low,OFDI has a greater induced effect on import and export trade.However,when the trade volume is relatively high,export-induced effects are limited and there is no significant reverse import-induced effect.Further study indicates that resource-seeking plays a major role in China’s investment motivation,considering the abundant resource endowments of ASEAN countries.However,neither significant market-seeking nor efficiency-seeking motivations have been found.The results are still robust after considering the impact of the Belt and Road Initiative and adding the factors such as lag period,panel data and energy industry output.