出口开放对中国工业碳排放的非线性影响研究

Research on the Nonlinear Effects of Export Openness on Industrial Carbon Emissions in China

基于WIOD提供数据计算2001~2011年中国出口隐含碳排放量,将其与面板门槛模型结合以实证考察出口开放对中国15个工业行业碳排放的非线性影响,并引入分析中国GVC分工地位以解释产生上述影响的原因。研究结果表明:扩大出口开放逐渐加剧了中国工业行业出口引起的碳排放水平,具体表现为出口开放度对人均出口隐含碳排放产生了三阶段递增的正向作用;中国工业行业对不同地区出口隐含碳排放同样受到了出口开放水平的非线性影响作用,且上述影响存在地区异质性;中国扩大出口开放反而加剧工业碳排放的不利局面与中国处于较低的GVC分工地位有关,在分工地位未得到明显改善的前提下,参与GVC分工获得较低贸易利益与付出较高环境代价的冲突会随着开放程度的扩大而逐渐加剧。

Based on the data provided by the World Input-Output Database(WIOD),this paper calculates the embodied carbon emissions of China’s export from 2001 to 2011,combines them with the panel threshold model to empirically investigate the nonlinear effects of export openness on carbon emissions of 15 industrial sectors in China and introduces the analysis of China’s position in global value chain(GVC)division to explain the reasons for those nonlinear effects.The results show that export openness exerts three-stage increasing positive effect on the embodied carbon emissions per capita in export,reflecting that the expansion of export openness has gradually aggravated the carbon emissions caused by the export of China’s industrial sectors.The nonlinear effects of export openness which have regional heterogeneity also exist in the export of the embodied carbon emissions of China’industrial sectors to different regions.The adverse situation that China’s expanding export openness has aggravated the industrial carbon emissions is related to China’s relatively low position in GVC division.The conflict between the low trade benefits obtained through participating in GVC division and the high environmental costs will gradually intensify with the expansion of openness if China’s position in GVC division isn’t significantly improved.