摘要
海外EPC+PPP项目,具有投资规模大、周期长、不确定因素多、风险高等特点,传统的经济评价方法无法全面体现项目风险。针对这一现状,总结了此类项目特点,提出基于蒙特卡洛数值模拟法的EPC+PPP项目风险评估方法,并以喀麦隆克里比深水港集装箱码头运营项目为例进行说明。结果表明,基于蒙特卡洛法的此类项目投资风险评估能更全面、直观地描述风险。
Overseas ' EPC +PPP' projects feature large investment scales, long pay-back periods, numerous uncertainties and high-risks. Traditional economic analysis method may fail to evaluate such projects comprehensively. Thus, in view of the characteristics of such projects, an ' EPC+PPP' risk evaluation method based on Monte Carlo simulation method is proposed.Cameroon Kribi Deep Sea Port Container Terminal Operation Project will be cited as an example to illustrate the point. The result shows that the risk evaluation based on Monte Carlo method is more comprehensive and intuitive.
出处
《中国港湾建设》
2017年第7期113-116,共4页
China Harbour Engineering
