投入产出分析的波及效应分解

Decomposing Spread Effect in Input-Output Analysis

波及效应是投入产出分析的核心问题。为提供最终产品,必须生产出供消耗的各种中间产品。在完全封闭的经济系统中,波及效应只会在本地扩散;而在开放的经济系统中,一部分波及效应就会通过输入的中间产品扩散到外地。对整体波及效应进行系统地分解:确定本地完全波及效应;分解出输入品的间接消耗,结合输入品的直接消耗得到输入品的完全消耗;在此基础上,采用适当的方法分解出外地直接波及效应、外地间接波及效应和外地完全波及效应。在分解过程中,明确波及效应各组成部分的定义和经济含义,为其进一步的研究和应用奠定基础。

Spread effect is the key problem in inputoutput analysis. In order to produce final products, various kinds of intermediate products must be manufactured for consuming. When an economic system is completely closed, spread effect will diffuse locally; while it'sopen, part of the effect will be expanded to other places through imported intermediate products. This article is trying to systemically decomposing whole spread effect, defining local complete spread effect, decomposing indirect consuming of import products and complete consuming combining with the direct one. Fundamentally, both direct and indirect nonlocal spread effect as well as complete nonlocal spread effect are all decomposed in a suitable way. In this process, definitions of its components are standardized and their economic meanings are illustrated, which has laid a foundation for further research and application.