农业机械化促进美国农业经济增长的实证分析

Empirical analysis of agricultural mechanization promoting agricultural economic growth in the United States

借助1985—2015年时序数据,采取相关分析、平稳性和协整关系检验、误差修正模型及格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,综合考察了美国农业经济增长与农业机械化间的关系。结果为:农业总产值和农机总动力在5%水平上,两变量一阶单整序列存在协整关系,即长期均衡关系,其中农机总动力对农业总产值有显著正向影响;两变量长期均衡存在短期修正效应,其中农业总产值短期波动受农机总动力短期变动的影响显著,且当短期波动偏离长期均衡时,将以43.93%的调整力度将非均衡状态拉回至均衡状态;当置信度为0.05时,农机总动力是农业总产值的格兰杰原因,然而农业总产值不是农机总动力的格兰杰原因。

This paper draws on the relevant time series data of the country from 1985 to 2015,by means of correlation analysis,stationarity test,cointegration test,error correction model and Granger causality test,the interaction between agricultural economic growth and agricultural machinery development in the United States was comprehensively investigated.The empirical results are:at the level of 5%,there is a cointegration relation between the first order single integral sequence of two variables,namely the long-term equilibrium relationship,at which the development of agricultural machinery has a significant positive impact on agricultural economic growth.At the same time,the long-term equilibrium of the two variables has short-term correction effect,in which the short-term fluctuation of agricultural economic growth is significantly affected by the short-term fluctuation of agricultural mechanization development.When the short-term fluctuation deviates from the long-term equilibrium,the unbalanced state will be pulled back to the equilibrium state with an adjustment intensity of 43.93%.In addition,when the confidence level is 0.05,the granger reason of agricultural gross domestic product is the total power of agricultural machinery.However,agricultural output value is not the granger reason of the total power of agricultural machinery and equipment.