宏观经济稳定与国有经济投资：作用机理与实证检验

Macroeconomic Stability and State-owned Economic Investment: Mechanism and Evidence

经济稳定、政治稳定与社会稳定共同构成了当代经济社会健康发展的前提条件。传统的宏观经济政策理论和各国的实践一般都把财政货币政策作为稳定宏观经济运行的主要工具,而在中国特色社会主义市场经济体制下,国有经济投资也发挥了一定作用。本文的研究发现:非国有经济投资具有明显的顺周期性,但国有经济投资的波动性较小,且具有一定逆周期性;分省层面的回归结果显示,国有经济投资比重高的省份,宏观经济波动较小;同时,国有经济投资对GDP具有显著的乘数效应。这些结果表明,国有经济投资发挥了稳定宏观经济作用,但这种稳定作用随着国有企业改革不断深化可能会有所减弱。

Economic stability,political stability and social stability constitute the prerequisite for the healthy development of contemporary economy and society.Traditional macroeconomic policy theory and the national practice generally regard fiscal and monetary policy as the main tool for stabilizing macroeconomic operation.Under the socialist market economic system with Chinese characteristics,state-owned economic investment also plays a certain role.This paper finds that non-state-owned economic investment has an obvious pro-cyclicality,while the volatility of state-owned economic investment is small and has a certain counter-cyclicality.Besides,according to provincial level regression results,provinces with a high proportion of state-owned economic investment have smaller macroeconomic fluctuations.At the same time,state-owned economic investment has a significant multiplier effect on GDP.All these indicate that state-owned economic investment has played a macroeconomic stabilizing role,but this role may be weakened with the deepening of the reform of state-owned enterprises.