基于多属性综合评价的恐怖袭击事件分级研究

Classification of Terrorist Attacks Based on Multi-attribute Comprehensive Evaluation Model

目前恐怖袭击事件主要依据人员伤亡与经济损失进行分级,没有准确的量化分析和统一标准.本文以全球恐怖主义数据库(GTD)中1998-2017年的恐怖袭击事件为例,依据危害程度对恐怖袭击事件进行分级.首先挑选恐怖袭击事件的8个主要属性指标,并利用成对比较矩阵给出8个指标在评价事件危害程度的权重,再建立多属性综合评价模型,计算得到该恐怖袭击事件危害程度,并以此制定恐怖袭击事件的分级标准.该模型充分考虑恐怖袭击事件的各种复杂因素,可满足恐怖袭击事件分级要求与级别标准化要求.

At present,terrorist attacks are mainly classified according to casualties and economic losses,without accurate quantitative analysis and unified standards.This paper takes the 1998-2017 terrorist attacks in the Global Terrorist Database(GTD)as an example,and classifies the terrorist attacks according to the degree of harm.Firstly,eight main attributes of a terrorist attack are selected,and the weights of eight attributes in evaluating the degree of harm are given by using pairwise comparison matrix.Then,a multi-attribute comprehensive evaluation model is established to calculate the degree of harm of the terrorist attack,and the classification criteria of the terrorist attack are formulated.The model fully considers all kinds of complex factors of terrorist attacks,and can meet the classification and standardization requirements of terrorist attacks.