强降雨过程对安化县、永顺县地质灾害气象预警预报工作的探讨

Study on Heavy Rainfall Process to the Meteorological Early Warning and Forecasting of the Geological Disasters in Anhua and Yongshun

湘西北地区为湖南省地质灾害高易发区,多年以来一直是湖南省汛期地质灾害气象预警预报关注的重点地区。本文以2014年7月的一次强降雨过程分析为例,探讨安化、永顺两县降雨与地质灾害发生的关系,对已有的气象预警预报模型进行修正、完善,通过GIS平台网格化、调整参评因素权重、确定区域降雨引发地质灾害阈值等方法,达到湘西北地区地质灾害气象预警预报初步精细化的目标,并通过上述方法的探讨,对全省地质灾害气象预警预报精细化工作推进提供经验。

Northwest Hunan is the high geological disaster-prone areas in Hunan, for many years been the focus of regional geological disasters in Hunan flood warning and forecast weather concerns. In this paper, a heavy rainfall in July 2014 in a case study to explore the relationship between Anhua and Yongshun County as rainfall and geological disasters, the existing weather warning forecasting model is modified, improved, through GIS platform grid, adjusted the weights of evaluation factors, identified regional rainfall caused geological disasters threshold and other methods to achieve the geological disaster weather warning forecasting Northwest of the initial fine goal, and by the above method to explore the province's meteorological early warning of geological disasters fine work provided advance experience.