基于FLUS模型的土地利用空间布局多情景模拟研究——以广州市花都区为例

Simulation of land use spatial layout based on FLUS model——A case study of Huadu District, Guangzhou

随着二十一世纪全球城市化的快速发展,我国城市化进程现正处于新阶段,新型城市化要求我们要引导城镇用地合理扩展,提高城镇用地利用效率,促进土地资源优化配置和城市空间的合理布局,实现区域协调可持续发展。本研究为实现城市土地利用在空间上科学合理分布,利用FLUS模型对未来城市用地的空间布局进行多情景模拟预测,为土地利用规划编制和城市规划提供有价值的参考。本研究以广州市花都区为实验区域,基于花都区2010年的土地利用现状数据,利用FLUS模型在30m×30m尺度下模拟2015年的土地利用状况,与花都区2015年的土地利用现状进行可靠性验证,通过马尔科夫法预测2025年花都区的各地类土地利用数量,建立耕地保护、生态保护和城市发展三种情景模拟花都区土地利用空间分布。结果表明,FLUS模型模拟结果的Kappa指数高达0.8869,总体精度为0.9132,FOM指数也符合标准水平,模型模拟精度高,在不同情景模拟下的土地利用空间布局均呈现出相当的合理性和科学性,模拟结果可为城市规划布局和土地利用规划提供有价值的参考。

With the rapid development of global urbanization in the 21 st century,China’s urbanization process is now in a new stage.New urbanization requires us to guide the rational expansion of urban land use,improve the efficiency of urban land use,promote the optimal allocation of land resources and the rational layout of urban space,and achieve regional coordination and sustainable development.In order to realize the scientific and rational spatial distribution of urban land use,the FLUS model is used to simulate and predict the spatial distribution of urban land use in the future,which provides valuable reference for land use planning and urban planning.In this study,Huadu District of Guangzhou City was taken as the experimental area.Based on the data of land use status in Huadu District in 2010,the FLUS model was used to simulate the land use situation in 2015 at the scale of30 m*30 m.The reliability of the model was verified with the current land use situation in Huadu District in 2015.The number of land use in Huadu District in 2025 was predicted by Markov method,and cultivated land protection,ecological protection and protection were established.Three scenarios of urban development simulate the spatial distribution of land use in Huadu District.The results show that the Kappa index of FLUS model simulation results is as high as 0.8869,the overall accuracy is 0.9132,FOM index also meets the standard level,and the model simulation accuracy is high.The spatial layout of land use under different scenarios shows considerable rationality and scientificity.The simulation results can provide valuable reference for urban planning layout and land use planning.