2030年中国粮食作物结构调整与安全布局研究

Studies on Security Distribution and Structure Adjustment of China's Grain Crops in 2030

本研究提出了 2 0 30年全国 6 .4亿吨 ,7.2亿吨与 8.0亿吨粮食生产目标 ,每个目标均按 3种方案布局 :方案 1,在播种面积为 1.1亿公顷条件下 ,保持目前不同熟制省区各分区粮食作物播种面积比例不变 ,突出各分区粮食种植面积的相对优势 ;方案 2 ,在播种面积为 1.1亿公顷条件下 ,保持目前不同熟制各分区粮食作物产量比例不变 ,突出各分区粮食产量的相对优势 ;方案 3,在播种面积降为 1.0亿公顷条件下 ,保持目前不同熟制各分区粮食作物产量比例不变 ,突出各分区粮食生产量的相对优势。按上述 3个生产方案将 2 0 30年全国总产与播种面积落实到各区与各类作物上 ,为我国未来粮食安全布局提供参考。

According to local grain production of different areas in China, grain production plans aimed to 640 million tons, 720 million tons, 800 million tons in 2030 are made, and each plan have three practical approaches: Approach I is carrying grain distribution on condition that the sowing areas proportion to total sowing areas of China in different provinces keep stable and the sowing areas of total grain in China keep 110 million hm2; Approach П is carrying grain distribution on condition that the yield proportion to total production of China in different provinces keep stable and the sowing areas of total grain in China keep 110 million hm2; Approach Ш is carrying grain distribution on condition that the yield proportion to total production of China in different provinces keep stable and the sowing areas of total grain in China keep 100 million hm2.