气候资料在邢台市气候生产力变化研究中的应用

Application of climate data in the study of climate productivity change in Xingtai city

气候变化会引起农田生态系统的变化,对农业生产力有直接或间接的影响,根据邢台市1954~2018年逐日降水和气温资料,利用Thornthwaite Memorial模型估算了气候生产力、利用线性趋势分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验和Morlet小波变换,分析了邢台市气候、气候生产力变化特征和发展趋势,探讨未来气候变化趋势和气候变化对邢台市气候生产力的影响,以更好地适应气候变化。结果表明,邢台市近65年的年平均气温呈波动上升的趋势,平均增加速率为0.37℃/10a,冬春季增温趋势高于夏秋季,年平均气温在1981年开始突变;年平均降水量波动较大,呈下降趋势,但未通过显著性检验,没有显著的增加和减少趋势。降水分布不均匀,总体偏于干旱;气候生产力随降水量变化的幅度明显大于随温度变化的幅度,受降水量影响较大,按照降水和气温变化特征和趋势,邢台市未来将趋向于暖湿气候,有利于作物产量提高;粮食产量还有较大增长空间。

Climate change can cause changes in farmland ecosystem and have direct or indirect effects on agricultural productivity.Based on daily precipitation and temperature data from 1954 to 2018 in Xingtai city,this paper estimates climate productivity using Thornthwaite Memorial model,uses linear trend analysis,Mann-Kendall mutation test and Morlet wavelet transform,and analyses the characteristics of climate and climate productivity changes in Xingtai city.In order to better adapt to climate change,the trend of climate change and its impact on climate productivity in Xingtai city are discussed.The results show that the annual average temperature of Xingtai city in recent 65 years shows a fluctuating upward trend with an average increase rate of 0.37℃/10 a.The trend of increasing temperature in winter and spring is higher than that in summer and autumn.The annual average temperature began to change in 1981.The annual average precipitation fluctuates greatly and shows a downward trend,but has not passed the significance test,and has no significant increase or decrease trend.The distribution of precipitation is uneven,and the overall trend is drought;the variation of climate productivity with precipitation is obviously larger than that with temperature,and is greatly influenced by precipitation.According to the characteristics and trends of precipitation and temperature,Xingtai will tend to warm and humid climate in the future,which is conducive to the increase of crop yield;and there is still room for greater growth of grain yield.