北京市昌平区温度热效应对非意外死亡及寿命损失年影响的研究

Thermal Effect of Temperature on Non-accidental Mortality and Years of Life Lost in Changping District,Beijing

目的研究温度热效应对人群非意外死亡及寿命损失年的影响。方法收集2014—2017年昌平区全人群死亡个案数据、气象数据及环保数据,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)拟合逐日平均气温与逐日死亡数及逐日YLL的关系,定量估计热效应对死亡率及寿命损失年的累积滞后效应。结果热效应的影响急促而短暂,持续4 d。热效应在累积滞后4 d时,温度每升高1℃,人群非意外死亡的累计超额死亡率为0. 030%(0. 011%, 0. 049%),男性和女性分别为0. 020%(-0. 005%, 0. 046%),0. 044%(0. 014%,0. 073%);(0～65)岁年龄组和65岁以上年龄组分别为0. 038%(0. 002%,0. 075%)和0. 028%(0. 005%,0. 050%),人群非意外死亡寿命损失年为5. 38(1. 76,9. 00)年,男性为2. 00(-0. 79,4. 79)年,女性为3. 04(0. 67,5. 40)年,(0～65)岁组为3. 97(0. 76,7. 18)年,65岁以上组为1. 01(-0. 58,2. 60)年。结论热效应使非意外死亡率和寿命损失年增加,女性及65岁以下人群的增加幅度大于男性和65岁以上人群。采用预警措施,保护易感人群十分必要。

Objectives To quantify the impact of thermal effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality and years of life lost.Methods Data of daily death,meteorology and air pollution in Changping District from 2014 to2017 were collected.The relationship between daily average temperature and daily mortality and years of life lost(YLL)was fitted by distributed lag non-linear model(DLNM).The cumulative excess mortality rate and years of life lost of heat were examined using a distributed lag non-linear model.Results The thermal effect was immediate,lasting for 4 days.Heat-related cumulative excess mortality rate of non-accidental mortality was 0.030%(0.011%,0.049%)per 1℃increase of temperature across lag 0~4 days,0.020%(-0.005%,0.046%)for male and 0.044%(0.014%,0.073%)for female,0.038%(0.002%,0.075%)for people under 65 years old and 0.028%(0.005%,0.050%)for over 65 years old,respectively.Heat-related years of life lost were 5.38(1.76,9.00)for all,2.00(-0.79,4.79)for men,3.04(0.67,5.40)for women,3.97(0.76,7.18)for people under 65 years old group,and 1.01(-0.58,2.60)for people over 65 years old group.Conclusions The non-accidental mortality rate and life loss year were increased by heat,and the increase were more obvious for female and the people under 65 years.It is necessary to adopt early warning measures to protect susceptible populations.