基于灰靶分类决策模型的河南农业干旱脆弱性评估

Assessment of Agricultural Drought Vulnerability in Henan Province Based on Grey Target Classification Decision Model

干旱脆弱性评估是防范干旱灾害的重要基础.针对农业干旱脆弱性评估这类不确定背景下的多指标分类决策问题,提出了靶心距测度方法,将偏差思想与靶心距测度结合,构造了目标约束模型M-1来确定指标权重及分类参数等决策信息;同时考虑信息有限性带来的决策风险,拓展模型M-2,对决策信息进行扩张处理;最后基于可能度的优势关系排序,对决策对象进行排序及分类评价.最后通过实例对河南干旱脆弱性进行分类评价,以验证上述方法的科学性及可行性.

Drought vulnerability assessment is an important basis for preventing drought disasters. Aiming at the multi-index classification decision-making problem in the uncertain background of agricultural drought vulnerability assessment, this paper proposes a target distance measurement method, which combines the deviation idea with the target distance measurement, constructs the target constraint model M-1 to determine the weight of the index and the classification parameters, considers the decision-making risk brought by the limited information, and expands the model M-2 to develop the decision-making information. Finally, the decision objects are ranked and classified based on the dominant relation ranking of the possibility degree, and the drought vulnerability of Henan Province is classified and evaluated by an example to verify the scientificity and feasibility of the above methods.