基于VAR模型的珠江-西江经济带产业结构演变与经济增长关系研究

Study on the Relationship between Industrial Structure Evolution and Economic Growth of Zhujiang-Xijiang Economic Belt Based on VAR Model

选取了珠江-西江经济带4个功能区11个市的相关统计资料,应用VAR(向量自回归)模型通过格兰杰因果检验、脉冲响应和方差分解研究其经济增长与产业结构的关系。发现西江-珠江经济带的经济增长和产业结构呈良性互动,但是互动水平仍有待提高。各功能区存在一定差异性,应加强合作,提高一体化水平。提出了促进珠江-西江经济带产业发展的对策。

The relevant statistical data of 11 cities in 4 functional zones of Zhujiang-Xijiang Economic Belt were selected.The relationship between economic growth and industrial structure was studied by means of Granger causal test,impulse response and variance decomposition using VAR(vector autoregression)model.The economic growth and industrial structure of the Xijiang-Zhujiang Economic Belt are found to be benign,but the level of interaction still needs to be improved.There are certain differences in the functional areas.We should strengthen cooperation and improve the level of integration.The countermeasures to promote the development of the Zhuhai-Xijiang Economic Belt are put forward.