气候变化对天津市商场和居住建筑极端能耗的影响

Effect of Climate Change on Extreme Energy Consumption for Residential and Commercial Buildings in Tianjin

通过模拟1961-2009年天津市商场建筑采暖和制冷能耗及不同节能水平居住建筑采暖能耗,采用百分位法确定了极端能耗阈值,分析了不同类型建筑的极端能耗年际变化特征,同时探讨了其与气候变化的关系。结果表明,近49年来,采暖期商场建筑热负荷极值日数呈显著下降趋势,而制冷期冷负荷没有明显变化趋势,但年际间波动较大;商场建筑热负荷极值对总热负荷的影响总体呈显著减小趋势,而冷负荷极值对总冷负荷的贡献呈弱的减少趋势,但没有通过显著性水平检验;一步节能居住建筑采暖热负荷极值日数呈显著下降趋势,且占总热负荷的比重显著减少;二步节能居住建筑仅有7年出现热负荷极值,而三步节能建筑热负荷49年来没有出现极值。逐步回归分析表明,平均气温是影响商场和居住建筑冬季热负荷极值的主要因素,而商场建筑冷负荷极值主要受湿球温度的影响。对商场建筑和居住建筑在设计和运行两个方面进行节能时要充分考虑能耗的变化特征以及不同时期对不同气候因子的响应,也要考虑制冷能耗极值的出现对空调系统运行安全的影响。另外,随着节能水平的提高,居住建筑能耗减少的同时,极端能耗出现的日数明显减少,有利于居住建筑节能。

Exploring changes of building energy consumption and its relationships with climate parameters can provide basis for energy-saving and emission reduction.Heating and cooling energy consumption of commercial building and heating energy consumption of residential buildings with different energy saving levels in Tianjin from 1961 to 2009 were simulated.Also,extreme energy consumption threshold was determined by percentile method.The interannual changes of extreme energy consumption and their relationships to climate change were analyzed.The results showed that:Days of extreme heating load in the heating period for commercial building significantly decreased during the recent 49 years,whereas no apparent variation but large interannual fluctuations for extreme cooling load.The contribution of extreme heating load to total heating load significantly decreased,and weak decline(but no significant change at the 0.05 level) was found in the contribution of extreme cooling load to total cooling load.Days of extreme heating load for the first-stage energy saving residential building and its contribution to total heating load showed significant decrease,but extreme heating load days occurred only in7 years for the second-stage residential building.No extreme heating load was found for the third-stage residential building.The stepwise linear regression suggested that mean temperature was the dominant factor for affecting extreme heating load in winter of commercial and residential buildings,whereas extreme cooling load of commercial building was mainly affected by wet bulb temperature.This study indicates changes of extreme energy consumption and its different responses to climate change at different periods should be considered when energy saving is made in two aspects of the design and operation for commercial and residential buildings.The effect of extreme cooling energy consumption on safe operation of air-conditioning systems should also be paid more attention.Additionally,the improvement of energy saving not only reduces energy consumption of residential building,but also apparently decreases the days of extreme energy consumption,which may be beneficial to residential building energy saving.