单双参云微物理方案对华南暴雨的模拟对比分析

Comparative Analysis of Single-Moment and Double-Moment Microphysics Schemes on a Local Heavy Rainfall in South China

选取中尺度模式WRF中10种微物理参数化方案,将它们分为单参和双参两组,分别评估了两组微物理参数化方案对2011年10月13-14日一次华南局地特大暴雨过程的降水模拟。结果表明:(1)两组方案均能较好的模拟出这次暴雨过程,当水平分辨率为36,12和4 km时,大暴雨的平均TS评分分别为0.06,0.06和0.13;(2)就此次局地特大暴雨的模拟而言,不同双参方案之间的预报结果差异较大,而单参方案之间的预报结果差异不明显;(3)双参方案中同时预报粒子比质量和数浓度,但两者之间缺乏有效的物理约束,使粒子谱的演变不确定性增大,从而导致对降水预报的差异也较大。

A local heavy rainfall in South China during 13- 14 October 2011 is simulated using the Weather Research Forecast modeling system. The effects of microphysics schemes,divided into two groups of five singleand five double-moment schemes,on rainfall area and intensity of precipitation were evaluated. The results show that:( 1) All of the schemes can reproduce the rainfall well,and the average threat score( TS) of tempestuous rainfall in 36,12 and 4 km resolutions are 0. 06,0. 06 and 0. 13,respectively.( 2) The results of the single-moment schemes show a less difference,compare to the results of the double-moment schemes.( 3) The doublemoment schemes are more complex than single-moment schemes,so the variation of hydrometeor's size distribution has more possibility in the double-moment schemes,so do the results of double-moment schemes. The present study is certain reference value in the mesoscale model microphysical processes in operation and research and the improvement of microphysics scheme.