基于财政收支与金融业发展互动关系的实证分析——以贵州省为例

An Empirical Analysis of the Interactive Relationship Between the Fiscal Revenue and Expenditure and the Development of the Financial Industry-Taking Guizhou Province as an Example

伴随着金融业的发展,财政收支与金融业之间的关联度日益提升。以贵州省为例,运用Granger因果检验和ECM模型对财政收支与金融业发展之间的互动关系进行了实证分析。结果表明,财政收支与金融业发展之间存在长期的均衡关系,财政收支是金融业发展的单向Granger原因,财政支出对金融业的影响在短期内不明显,但在长期内具有显著的正向促进作用。

With the development of the financial industry,the relationship between the fiscal revenue and expenditure and the financial industry is increasing. Taking Guizhou Province as an example,this paper makes an empirical analysis of the interaction between the fiscal revenue and expenditure and the development of the financial industry with Granger Test and ECM Model. The results show that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the fiscal revenue and expenditure and the development of the financial industry,and the fiscal revenue and expenditure is one of the reasons for the development of the financial industry. The effect of fiscal expenditure on financial industry is not obvious in the short term,but it has a significant positive effect in the long term.