应用时间序列统计方法分析广东省1984～1993年乙型脑炎季节性分布特性

Application of the Time- Series Method to Analyse the Seasonal Distribution of Epidemic Encephali- tis B Incidence in Guangdong Province in the Years of 1984 - 1993

对构成双向有序列联表时间序列数据的广东 1984～ 1993年 10年乙型脑炎 (乙脑 )逐月发病资料 ,应用游程检验和有序对数比检验两种不同统计方法进行季节性分布分析 ,获一致的统计结论 ,乙脑发病呈明显的一年一峰 ( 6月或 7月 )季节性周期 ,这对流行病学工作者掌握两种统计方法的基本原理和方法有一定帮助。

This paper analysed the data of epidemic encephalitis B incidence that was consti- tuted to time- series and the two- ordered contingency table in Guangdong province from1984 to 1993.Two different kinds of statistical methods of run- testand ordered- log- ratio test were applied to study the characteristics of seasonal distribution.Consistent conclusion was obtained to show that there appeared an obvious seasonal cyclic characteristic of a peak every year( June or July) for the incidence of epidemic encephalitis B.Itis helpful for the epidemiologists to understand the prin- ciple and method of these statistical tests.