橡胶树白粉病防治决策模型研究

A Control Decision Model for Rubber Powdery Mildew(Oidium hevea St .)

根据综合治理系统的系统分析,用电算模拟的方法建立了橡胶白粉病防治决策模拟模型.1993～1996年在海南4个不同生态类型区作了验证,结果表明,其子模型均与实际相符,预测值与实际值的相关系数为0.888 7～0.998 9,P＜P0.01,准确率较高.1993～1996年在2个农场1.7万hm2橡胶园中应用决策模型指导生产防治,防治效果比常规防治提高6.2%,防治成本降低13.4%,防治经济效益增加12.3%,挽回干胶损失2000t.

Based on systematic analysis of integrated disease management system of rubber powdery mildew,a control decision model was established by using computer simulation.Validations were conducted in4different ecological areas on Hainan Island in1993~1996.The results showed that the forecasting values of the submodels were identical with actual values with the correlation coeffi cients being0.8887~0.9989(P<P0.01).The decision model was applied to guide the control of rub ber powdery mildew in two state farms in1993~1996.The control efficiency was6.2%higher than that of the conventional control,the control cost13.4%lower and economic benefit12.3%higher.This model saved2000tons of dry rubber from the two state farms.