气候保护支出对中国经济安全的影响模拟

Simulating the Impact of the Climate Protection Expenditure on China's Economic Security

以德国学者 Leimbach建立的气候保护支出模型为基础 ,对模型和参数作了一些修改 ,在假设中国经济一直保持稳定发展的前提下 ,模拟分析了不同削减水平下我国温室气体排放的轨迹、总产出中用于气候保护的开支以及在不同减排目标下的社会福利状况。在模拟分析的过程中 ,共假设了 3种可能的减排目标 :CO2 排放量比 1 990年有所增加、CO2 排放量保持在 1 990年的水平、CO2 排入量逐年下降。在这 3种减排目标的基础上 ,模拟计算出总产出用于气候保护的支出 ,最后得出结论 ,随着减排目标的上升 ,对气候保护的投入也就越大 ,居民对生活满意的程度也随之下降 ,但是不会构成国家经济不安全。

Based on a revised Leimbach model,this paper simulates the trends of China's greenhouse\|gas emission in the future under different reduction levels.First,the paper sets three reduction objectives:the total volume of the emitting CO 2 keeps the same level as that of the 1990s;the total volume of the emitting CO\-2 is greater than that of the 1990s;and the total volume of the emitting CO\-2 declines subsequently.Then,the paper revises the Leimbach money expenditure model and runs it,simulating the impact of the third reduction plan will result in the money expenditure on climate protection increasing thile the degree of Chinese citizen's satisfactory with their living standards will decline.Even though,as the model reveals,there will be no such event as economic crisis on a national level.