货物逾期送达影响因素的定量分析

Quantitative Analysis of Factors Causing Late Freight Delivery

逾期送达是影响铁路货物运输市场竞争力的一个重要因素;在铁路货物运输过程中,各式各样的因素都可能影响货物按时送达。在对27批逾期送达货物(整车)的全程写实调查的基础上,根据主成分分析方法的原理,提出了分析影响货物送达时间因素的方法;该方法主要包括:将货物送达过程划分为五个"环节因素"、"23个过程因素";依据抽样资料,计算各因素对总送达时间变动的方差贡献率;以方差贡献率大小排序,结合生产实际情况确定影响货物按时送达的主要因素。通过对原始样本资料的计算分析,得到了"影响货物按时送达的主要过程是待取、待送和非运行保留"的结论。以此为基础,结合对现场的调查分析,本文相应地提出加速货物送达、降低逾期率的技术组织措施和有关建议。

Late delivery of freight is an important factor affecting market competition of railway freight service. Freight delivery is influenced by various factors of freight service. Based on the survey of forwarding process of 27 fullwagon loads, which are overdue, and the principle of component analysis method, this paper puts forward a method to analyze factors that may affect the shipping time. The method is:partitioning the process of transmporting freight to 5 link factors and 23 process factors.According to a sample, calculating contributory scales of varieties of these factors,sorting these factors by contributory scales and making sure of what the main factors affect freight service delivery on time based on the freight transport process. Analytical results indicate that waiting to be coupled, waiting to be delivered and nonoperational standing are the key factors bringing about late delivery. According to actual freight transport of China Rail, this paper suggests some technical organization measures and suggestions that can speed up freight service and decrease delay rate in delivery. 