自然地理预测基本问题

The Fundamental Problems of Physicogeographical Forecasting

随着科学技术和生产的高速发展,研究和预测人类活动对自然环境变化的影响日益成为现代地理学最重要、最迫切的任务之一。本文首先分析了综合自然地理预测中存在的困难及其克服途径,然后讨论了自然地理预测的基本问题,其中包括自然地理预测的理论保证,信息保证,分析保证和方法保证以及预报验证等。

First, this paper analyses the difficulties in the complex physicogeographical forecasting and the avenues of overcoming these difficulties. Second, some of the fundamental problems asso-ciated with physicogeographical forecasting are discussed. They in-clude the theoretical, informational, analytical and methodical as-surances of physicogeographical forecasting and the Verification of forecasts.