地震活动信息熵及时空分维在地震预报中的意义

SIGNIFICANCE OF SEISMICALLY ACTIVE INFORMATION ENTROPY AND TIME-SPACE FRACTIONAL DIMENSION IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

本文选取新疆境内强震的高发区——乌恰地区作为研究区域,分别采用合成缺信量、合成信息熵、信息熵、容量维和信息维等五种不同的方法,通过时间域和空间域分析对乌恰地区1980—1988年发生的三次强震进行了动态追踪的研究。结果表明,无论是从熵的观点(均匀程度),还是从分维数的观点(有序程度)出发,强震前的减熵(降维)过程是明显的,研究表明,这种强震前的减熵(降维)过程可能成为强震震源体处于临界破裂的一种特征物理量,因而可作为强震预测以及重点危险区动态监测的一种方法。

This paper selected Wuqia area as the research region where is the seismically active region of strong earthquakes in Xinjiang region. Through time-space zone analysis, five different methods such as synthetic lack information quantity, synthetic information entropy, information entropy, capacity dimension and information dimension were used to trace and study the three strong earthquakes occurred in Wuqia area from 1980 to 1988. Results show that either from the viewpoint of entropy (uniform degree) or from the viewpoint of fractional dimension number (ordered degree), the entropy decreasing (dimension drop) process is clear before strong events. Studies show that such entropy decreasing (dimension drop) process is probubly a characteristic physical quantity of the focal body of strong-shocks which is in the critical rupture. Therefore, it can be regarded as a method for strong earthquake prediction and dynamic monitoring of major risk regions.