震源物理与地震短临前兆问题

SOURCE PHYSICS AND PROBLEM OF THE SHORT-TERM AND IMPENDING EARTHQUAKE PRECURSORS

本文分别从震源孕育模式、震源复杂性、短临物理效应、孕震系统的动力学行为等方面讨论了地震短临前兆问题,指出短临阶段具有非常复杂的物理过程,这种复杂性决定了地震短临前兆的复杂性和短临预报的艰巨性。文章认为,在探索地震短临前兆的研究中应特别重视地震前兆信息的开发和提取、以一定物理思想为框架的现场试验以及地震短临前兆物理机制和短临阶段物理过程的研究。

This paper discussed the problem about the short-term and impending earthquake precursors from-the aspects of earthquake source development model, source complexity, short-term and impending physical effect and dynamic behavior of seismogenic system as well as pointed out that the short-term and impending stages are of very complicated physical process- and this complexity decides the the complexity of the short-term and impending earthquake precursors and the arduousness of the short-term and impending earthquake prediction. The paper proposed that the development and extraction of the information of earthquake precursors, studies of the on-the-spot tests based on the framework of a certain physical thinking, physical mechanism of the shorrterm and impending earthquake precursors and physical process of the short-term and impending stages should be especially emphasized in exploring the short-term and impending earthquake precursors.