道路交通事故与车速建模

Expressway Traffic Accident and Matrix of Vehicle Speed

对国外高速公路的事故率与运行车速进行综合分析 ,阐述高速公路上基于运行车速的预测交通事故率的前期研究方法 ;在前期研究方法的基础上 ,将速度和速度梯度两个自变量同时加以考虑 ,弥补了前期事故率模型缺少影响因素的缺陷 ,并就其影响因素和控制参数展开分析 ;介绍新的高速公路事故率预测模型 ,对如何建立交通事故伤亡模型提出建议。

By analyzing the traffic accident rate and operating speed on foreign expressways, this article tells the prophase method that we do research about forecasting the traffic accident rate based on operating speed of vehicles. Based on the prophase investigative method,taking into consideration of two factors of the velocity and the velocity gradient at the same time, it remedies the limitation that the model of prophase accident rate is short of the influencing factors, and analyses the influencing factors and manipulative parameters. In addition, this article introduces the new predicting model of expressway traffic accident and gives some advises on how to set up the matrix of traffic accident injury.