汾渭地震带时间序列的最大熵谱分析及未来中强震发震概率的最大熵原理估计

THE MAXIMUM ENTROPY SPECTRUM ANALYSIS OF EARTHQUAKE TIME SEQUENCE AND MAXIMUM ENTROPYPRINCIPLE ESTIMATION OF PROBABILITIES OFFORTHCOMING MODERATE-STRONG EARTHQUAKESALONG FENWEI SEISMIC BELT

本文应用最大熵谱分析的方法和最大熵原理的方法,对汾渭地震带1200年以来发生的Ms≥5.0级地震的时间序列资料进行了分析,结果表明,汾渭地震带历史上Ms≥5.0级的地震存在着250±10年的卓越周期以及今后50年内,发生5.0≦6.0和6.0≦Ms<7.0级地震的概率分别为0.979和0.604,发生Ms>7.0级地震的概率较低,仅为0.199。而5级、6级地震的复发周期分别为12.9年和53.9年等。

The earthquake time sequence of Ms≥5.0 events since 1200 along Fenwei seismic belt has been analysed based on the maximum entropy spectrum method and the maximum entropy principle. It is showed that there existed an predominant period of 250±10 years for the historic Ms≥.5.0 events along the belt. The probability of 5.0≤<MS<6.0 and 6.0≤MS<7.0 earthquakes in the coming 50 years is 0.979 and 0.604, respectively. Yet, the probability of Ms>7.0 earthquakes is only 0.199. The recurrence interval of M5.0 and M6.0 events is 12.9 and 53.9 years, respectively.