中国大陆主要强震区(带)地震危险性的灰色预测

THE GREY FORECASTING FOR EARTHQUAKERISK IN THE MAJOR MACROSEISMIC AREAS(OR BELTS) ON CHINA CONTINENT

本文根据我国大地构造背景和强震震中分布特征,划分出主要强震区(带)。通过对各区地震时间分布不均匀性的分析,划分出各区的强震集发时段。分别以各区强震集发时段的起、止时间为基本数据,运用灰色理论的基本方法,建立灰色预测模型。给出各强震区(带)本次和下次集发时段的灰色预测结果。

In this paper, the major macroreismic areas (or bolts) have been confined on China Continent, according to the geological setting and distributive char-acteristies of strong event epicenters. By analysing the inhomogeneity of temporal earthquake distribution in each area, certain poriods in which strong events clustered have been worked out. Regarding the respective start and slop times of those periods in each area as basie data, the erey forecasting models have been set up by using the essential method in Grey System The-ory. Finally, the grey forecasting results oi this elustered event period and that of the next period in each area (or belt) have been presented.