滇西重力潮汐剖面及地震活动性的研究

THE GRAVITY-TIDAL PROFILE IN WESTERN YUNNAN AND STUDY OF SEISMIC ACTIVITY

1986年以来,笔者先后在下关、丽江台安装了GS-15,ET型重力仪连同弥渡台构成滇西重力潮汐剖面并获得了时间不等的高质量连续观测资料。为统一观测系统,本文将两种不同型号仪器的观测结果归算为武昌台的系统,即ICET(国际固体潮中心)系统。归算表明两台仪器观测结果主波潮次参数δ的偏差小于0.2%、在此基础上,文中讨论了近年来滇西潮汐剖面附近大震前的潮汐变化特征及利用各种物理参数预报地震的可能性。

Since 1986, the ET and GS-15 gravimeters have been operated at Xiaguan and Lijiang stations, which constituted the gravity profile in western Yunnan (together with Midu station) and obtained some ideal data of continuous observation with different time spans. In order to unify the observational system, this paper reduced the observational results from the two types of gravimeters to ICET (International Centre of Earth Tide) system in Wuchang station. Calculations show that the two instruments belong to ICET system and deviations of main waves arc not larger than 0.2%. In the last, based on the results in recent years, this paper discusses the various characters of gravity tide before earthquakes and probability of predicting earthquakes with different physical parameters.