前兆地震活动图象及其在地震预报中的作用(英文)

PRECURSORY SEISMICITY PATTERNS AND ITS SIGNIFICANCE IN EARTHQUAKE PREDICTION

本文根据长、中和短期预报研究对主要地震活动图象加以归类和简述。结果表明:(1) 基于地震活动图象分析的中、短期预报,在预报时间上可能达到1、2年,甚至几个月的量级。但要进一步缩短预报的时间尺度十分困难,除非有明显的前震序列活动。(2) 地震活动图象分析对于辨认未来主震(尤其是强主震)的位置是有效的。(3) 强震和中强震前的图象特点是有区别的;据此,可以大概估计未来主震的震级。然而,图象的空间尺度与主震震级无明显的相关性。(4) 信号震、前兆震群和前震(包括早期前震)总是伴随着异常的地震活动时空图象。

In this paper, based on the long-, intermediate- and short-terms earthquake prediction studies the major seismicity patterns have been classified and expounded. The obtained result indicates the following points: (1 ) The time span control of an intermediate and short-term prediction, according to the seismicity pattern analysis, can reach down to 1-2 years, or within 12 months. Yet, it would be very difficult to make a prediction in the shorter time span, unless tliere exists an obvious foreshock activity; ( 2 ) For the location of a corning event (especially a strong mainshock) the seismicity pattern method is very effective; ( 3 ) There exists a difference between patterns of a strong event and a moderate one, with which the magnitude of the coming mainshock might probably determined. The spatial scale of those patterns does not relate closely to the mainshock magnitude; and ( 4 )The signal shock, precursory swarm and foreshock (including the early stage foreshock) always accompany the anomalous temporal-spatial patterns.