探明储量增长“帚状”预测模型——以济阳坳陷为例

A broom-type model for predicting incremental proved reserves

探明储量增长预测是石油勘探决策的一项重要内容。在分析传统预测方法特点以及济阳坳陷历年累计储量规模序列变化规律的基础上 ,提出预测探明储量增长的新方法———探明储量增长帚状预测模型 ,将盆地资源基础、勘探现状、勘探工作量、预期投入等各种影响储量增长的因素融于同一数学方程。应用此模型在胜利油田这样的高成熟探区实现了油气藏数目和储量的中短期准确预测。

The prediction of incremental proved reserves is important for decision making in petroleum exploration. Based on the analysis of traditional methods, the broom type model for predicting incremental proved reserves has been created, which a new prediction method successfully melt all kinds of influence factors, such as basin resources, proven degree, and exploration input, etc, into one mathemathical equation. By using the broom type model, the accurate middle short term prediction of reservoir number and proven reserves becomes true.