货币政策调控有效性的实证检验

An Empirical Test of Monetary Policy's Effectiveness

应用平稳性检验、协整性检验与因果检验 ,分析货币政策对经济政策与物价变动的影响 ,以此检验货币政策的有效性。实证结果表明 ,金融变量与经济增长、物价变动之间存在着长期稳定的因果关系 ,特别是 2 0世纪 80年代以来推行的市场经济改革 ,增强了中央银行选择货币供应量作为中介指标的可操作性 ,中央银行可通过控制货币供给总量来影响宏观经济活动 ,达到到间接调控的目的。

On the bases of analysis into the effects of monetary and economic policies on changes of price levels, the author tests the effectiveness of the monetary policies. The author finds out that the central bank can affect the macroeconomic activity through its control over the money supply and achieve the goal of indirect adjustment and control.