用两期催化模型拟合一类甲型肝炎流行率资料

A simulation to data of the prevalence of hepatitis A by using a two-stage catalytic model

作者结合杭州地区的实际资料,应用两期催化模型对甲型肝炎(甲肝)的年龄别流行率进行了拟合,经拟合优度的x^2检验,结果令人满意.通过模型,对资料中抗-HAV阳性率为什么随着年龄的增长出现升而复降的情况作了初步分析,定量的测知该人群的抗-HAV感染力为0.164.结果表明,对类似于杭州地区的甲肝流行率资料,用两期催化模型拟合更为合理.感染力是一个定量估计甲肝感染程度的指标,因此,可用该模型比较各地流行状况,评价防治效果,预测疾病的流行强度等.

According to the actual data in Hangzhou, the authors have fitted the data by using a two-stage catalytic model. The result is satisfactory as proved by the x2-test of goodness of fit. According to the model, the authors have analysed the epidemic peculirities of hepatitis A in Hangzhou. The force of infection was estimated quantitatively as 0-164 in this people group. The result indicates that similar data should be fitted by using the two-stage catalytic model. The force of infection is an index with which the degree of infection can be estimated quantitatively. So the model can be used to compare the epidemic situation in different places, evaluate the effects of prevention and treatment and forecast the epidemic degree of disease.