历史资料短缺地区估计地震活动性参数方法初探

First Exploration of the Method to Estimate Seismicity Parameter in Area Where Historical Data Are Shortage

在地震危险性分析中 ,历史地震资料是确定地震活动性参数的关键。鉴于我国西部地震资料记载年限短 ,地震活动水平高的情况 ,本文提出一种对中国西部地区如何使用有限资料 ,确定未来地震活动水平和合理估计地震活动性参数的方法。该方法是引入相对应变这一物理量 ,通过分析各地震带中强以上地震在时间上的相对应变释放速率 。

The historical seismic data are the key determining seismicity parameter in seismic hazard analysis. Owing to the short number for years of seismic data records and high seismic active level in the west of China, a method is raised that uses limited data to determine the future seismicity level and estimates seismicity parameters rationally. This method is to introduce a physics quantity of relative strain. And the speeds releasing strain of moderately strong earthquake and over are analyzed in time in order to reach the purpose of estimating seismicity parameters as rational as possible.