异常南海夏季风的OLR前期特征

OLR Prophase Characteristics of the Abnormal South China Sea Wet Monsoon

应用 1979～ 1999年 NOAA卫星月平均 OL R资料及 195 0～ 1999年 NCAR/ NCEP再分析的海表温度月平均资料 ,采用合成分析的方法对异常南海夏季风爆发前期的特征进行分析 ,并做信度检验。结果表明 ,在季风爆发的前期 ,对流活动和海温的异常与南海夏季风的异常关系密切。OL R在初春、垂直速度在整个前期与南海夏季风的异常存在着极强的相关性。在强 (弱 )南海夏季风年的前期 ,热带海温基本呈 L a Nina(El Nino)型分布 ,其中在12月 。

A study on the prophase characteristics of the abnormal South China Sea wet monsoon was made by way of synthetic analysis and its reliability was checked,using NOAA satellite monthly average data from 1979 to 1999 and NCAR/NCEP reanalyzed monthly average data regarding sea surface temperature from 1950 to 1999.The study results show that convection movement and the abnormality of sea temperature before the bursting out of wet monsoon are closely related to the generation of abnormal South China Sea wet monsoon.It indicates a strong relation between OLR in early spring,the vertical velocity in the whole prophase,and the abnormality of South China Sea wet monsoon.Prior to the strong(weak) South China Sea wet monsoon year,the tropic sea temperature distributes basically as La Nina(E1 Nino) type,of which in December,the average distance distribution of sea temperature has the closest relation with the strength of South China Sea wet monsoon in the coming year.