利用随机模拟研究极值天气的预报模型试验

A Forecast Model Experiment in Studying Extreme-value Weather with Stochastic Simulation

将随机过程的交叉理论应用于天气气候极值分析 ,以长江三角洲地区逐月最高最低气温为例 ,说明了交叉理论在极值研究中的作用。基于该理论 ,对上海市近1 0 0 a一月气温序列 ,用随机模拟的方法讨论了极端温度出现的频数、持续时间、时间间隔等参数对于气候变化的敏感性 ,并根据气候变化趋势 ,预测了未来气候极值统计特征的变化规律。

The cross theory of stationary stochastic process is used in the analysis of weather and climate extreme value in this paper. The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures in the Yangtze delta are instanced to explain the application of cross theory in the study on extreme value. Based on the theory, the sensitivity of extreme value parameters,such as frequency,duration and time interval,to Shanghai's monthly average temperature series of the last 100 years is discussed in terms of stochastic simulation,and the statistical character of extreme values of the future climate is predicted.