近44a中国冬夏气温变率及其对区域变暖性的影响

Summer and Winter Temperature Variability and Their Impacts on Regional Warming Stability in China in Recent 44 Years

利用近 4 4a中国 85个测站冬夏季逐日平均、最高和最低气温序列 ,研究冬夏季温度季节变率及其时空演变特征 ,探讨其对区域变暖稳定性的影响。结果表明 :冬季 ,除高原、西南、东北以外的中国大部分地区 ,温度的季节变率存在显著下降趋势 ,是近期变暖的稳定区 ,其中变暖最为稳定、显著的区域是西北、华北地区 ,东北北部虽变暖幅度很大 ,但稳定性最差 ;夏季 ,长江中下游及其江南地区温度变率存在显著上升趋势 ,2 0世纪 70年代后年际变幅明显增大 ,表明该地区 80年代降温的稳定性差。

Time series of daily mean, maximum and minimum temperature at 85 stations in China during the past 44 years are used to reveal the characteristics of the seasonal variability of summer and winter temperature,their spatial/temporal evolution,and their impacts on regional warming stability.Results show that a stable warming in recent years exists in the most part of China except the Qinghai Xizang Plateau,southwest and northeast China because of a significant descending trend of seasonal temperature variability in winter. A most stable and significant warming is found in northwest and north China. While the significant warming in the north part of northeast China displays the weakest stability. In summer,an obvious ascending trend of seasonal temperature variability lies in the low middle reaches of the Yangtze River together with the significant increases of interannual variation since 1970s,suggesting that the stability of the cooling over this area in 1980s was weak.