中国投机性货币需求的计量分析

An Econometric Analysis of the Speculative Money Demand of China

从分析凯恩斯主义和货币主义的货币需求理论的分歧出发,研究中国的货币需求是否与利率相关的问题. 在1992年之前,由于证券市场的缺位,人们的投资选择单一且均无风险,这导致了投机性货币需求很小甚至不存在,因此利率对货币需求的影响很小;而1992年之后,随着中国证券市场的迅速发展,人们投资选择的多样化,使得投机性货币需求大大增加,利率的变动对货币需求产生了显著的影响. 论文通过对中国货币需求的计量分析,为以上结论提供了经验的证明.

Based on the analysis of the theoretical differences in money demand between Keynesianism and monetarism, this paper tackles the issue whether money demand in China is related to its interest rates. Prior to 1992, the absence of security markets and single, unrisky investment available for the Chinese resulted in little or no speculative money demand. Consequently, interest rates exerted little effect on money demand. However, with the rapid development of security markets in China since 1992, diversified investment choices have tremendously increased the money demand for the speculative motive. As a result, interest rate changes have remarkably affected money demand. The econometric analysis of the money demand in China conducted in this paper offers an empirical proof for the conclusion.